On the surface Iraq notched up stellar oil output and export performance in 2015. But this is overshadowed by a collapse in prices and revenue, war with Islamic State and continued tension with the Kurdish north which now exports 600,000 b/d beyond Baghdad’s control.

Iraqi crude oil exports through official channels brought in just $49.1bn for 2015, down by 42% on 2014’s $84.1bn, and 48% on 2012’s record $94.0bn. This is despite output having risen by 950,000 b/d over the...