Iraqi Kurdistan’s plans to boost output from the current 600,000 b/d to 1mn b/d look dead in the water, at least as far as this decade is concerned. Despite the start-up of new fields, falling output at key current producers means that overall gains this year will likely be minimal at best.

Financial pressures and the downgrading of reserves at the key Taq Taq export field have dealt an enormous blow to the KRG’s crude export plans. New production is set to come online in 2016...