Opec is on track for another record breaking year, as production in the first half races ahead of the same period in 2015. And with unplanned outages in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela dampening output, there is considerable upside potential.

Average production so far this year is 32.53mn b/d, well ahead of last year’s 31.75mn b/d (even including Indonesia, which rejoined in January, in 2015’s data) and seasonal demand growth is driving an acceleration, with Q2’s 32.56mn b/d...