Iraq is to base its 2017 draft budget on an oil price of $42/B and exports of 3.75mn b/d. Both figures look broadly realistic, albeit with some key caveats.

The Iraqi government’s statement on the 2017 draft budget, released 27 September, adopts a $42/B oil price assumption that errs on the side of caution, albeit substantially less so than an earlier draft that envisaged $35/B. This was changed on the recommendation of the IMF which considered the initial price too low and which is...