Iraqi exports have remained largely static this year, but are set to increase in the fourth quarter as seasonal crude burn falls. With increased gas supplies freeing up more crude for export, Iraq’s 2017 export target looks eminently achievable.

Iraq’s draft budget for 2017 envisions exports of 3.75mn b/d next year, 3.25mn b/d of which is slated to come from federal Iraq and 500,000 b/d from the KRG. Although federal exports have been running slightly below this rate for the...