International oil firms are bullish they can not only survive but thrive at current $50-55/B prices. This should be enough for an output rebound in the key US shale basin, but increases here, and from other short-cycle projects, will not be enough to meet demand beyond the next few years. This will require the development of at least some shelved megaprojects, but the requisite investment requires higher prices. By how much is the $24 trillion question.

“Boom, Bust and Beyond:...