US crude output has already risen by 200,000 b/d since bottoming out at 8.58mn b/d in September. Add in NGLs and the gains are 300,000 b/d. With last week’s Opec agreement to cut having, seemingly decisively, boosted crude prices above $50/B further rises are likely in the pipeline.

The outlook for 2017 US crude output was looking bleak midway through 2016 as oil majors and oilfield services firms cut back on spending. But with oil prices now above the $50/B mark, the EIA has raised...