Opec agreed to cut 1.2mn b/d production against a reference figure largely based on its secondary sources calculation for October 2016 output during its 30 November meeting in Vienna. Opec is targeting a ceiling of 32.5mn b/d, but with exemptions for Nigeria and Libya - and Indonesia suspended but still included in the total output - this looks extremely difficult even if the 11 countries with allocations meet their targets (MEES, 2 December).

The task just got more difficult, as MEES...