Saudi Arabia is set to cut production by 500,000 b/d from October levels in January under the recent Opec/non-Opec output deal. Crude and refined product exports are both on track for record annual highs in 2016, but lower production will mean one, or both, will have to fall in 2017. But hydrocarbon revenues are set to rise regardless.

Crude prices have surged more than $8/B since the 30 November Opec meeting. Brent was at $54/B as MEES went to press, and MEES calculates that Saudi crude...