Iraq exported a record 3.3mn b/d of crude oil in 2016, up 10% on 2015’s record 3mn b/d. It exited the year with a record high of just under 3.6mn b/d in December. This was driven by a record 3.51mn b/d exports from its main Basra export hub. Data for northern exports through the KRG-controlled pipeline to Ceyhan in Turkey have yet to be released but will likely be slightly up on November’s 54,000 b/d.

As for 2017, H1 exports are set to fall from their current heights under the...