Saudi Arabia last year launched its Vision 2030 program aimed at transforming its economy and ending its dependency on oil. One aspect of this was the Fiscal Balance Program (FBP) which intends to invigorate the non-oil sector and reduce damaging inefficiencies in government spending.

The FBP is intended to balance the budget by 2020. Last year’s deficit appears to have hit a staggering SR402bn ($107bn) once delayed payments are factored in. But Saudi investment bank Jadwa thinks that...