The IEA’s latest medium term oil report repeats the organization’s siren calls that a supply crunch is in the pipeline. But it may be underestimating the scale of the US shale rebound already underway.

The IEA’s ‘Oil 2017’ report, which covers medium term forecasts to 2022, warns that the 45% cut in upstream investment over 2014-16 will have to be rapidly reversed if the world is not to face a supply crunch and a spike in prices towards the end of its forecast...