The latest figures from the IEA and Opec show a market increasingly moving towards balance, albeit slowly. Whilst Opec has cut by more than most observers expected this has been part-balanced by a rapid ramp-up in US output. Even if Opec producers maintain current cuts then rebalancing – defined as a 270mn barrel stockdraw – will be achieved no earlier than the fourth quarter.

Although Opec countries have made sizeable cuts since January, they have yet to offset the excesses...