Crude output from Opec’s six core Gulf members was over 1mn b/d lower in February than December, whilst the Americas, led by the US and Brazil, have seen output soar. With Opec’s historic output cut deal just three months old, we are already seeing dramatic shifts to historic crude trade flows. And whilst arbitrage economics will no doubt ebb and flow over the months and years to come, the IEA predicts that Americas-to-Asia shipments will be with us for the long haul.

...