Opec racked up a fourth consecutive monthly output decline in March to fall below 32mn b/d for the first time since May 2016. March marked the halfway point of the group’s six month-long production curb, but at 31.97mn b/d, it remains 190,000 b/d above its target of 31.78mn b/d (adjusted from 32.5mn b/d due to the suspension of Indonesia). Output in the first quarter averaged 430,000 b/d above the target.

The focus is increasingly turning to whether the agreement will be rolled over...