With less than a month to go until Opec meets in Vienna, expectations are mounting that the group will agree to extend its six-month output cut agreement. April was the last full month of production before the 25 May meeting, but the group remains more than 100,000 b/d above the target level. Even if it does opt to extend the cuts, will this be sufficient to achieve the elusive rebalancing of the market?

Oil prices have slumped in early-May to their lowest level since the run-up to...