$45-50/B oil prices may be low enough to halt the US shale ramp-up. Would Opec settle for this?

The EIA’s June Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released this week, shows US output rising strongly. But output for last month is revised down. Whilst May output of 9.208mn b/d is up by a bumper 106,000 b/d on April, this is partly because the latter has been revised down by 40,000 b/d.

Strong output growth is still projected for the remainder of 2017 and beyond. The EIA, taking into...