Preliminary figures indicate that Qatar’s export revenues are on track to dip slightly in Q2, although they will still record a sizeable year-on-year gain (see charts 1 and 2). However, this is based on April and May data and therefore doesn’t factor in the impact of trade and logistical sanctions imposed by neighboring states, this trend is likely to hold (see p13).

Qatar may be forced to reduce the prices of its hydrocarbon exports slightly due to a risk premium in order to...