Kuwait recorded a $5.3bn trade surplus in the first quarter of 2017, up $4bn on the same period in 2016. But as this is primarily down to oil revenues of $12bn, falling crude prices in Q2 imply an imminent drop-off. At $12.1bn, oil revenues represented 89% of total exports in Q1 (see table).

Kuwait Export Blend crude averaged $51.33/B in Q1 2017, against just $28.11/B in Q1 2016, an 82% rise. This slipped to $49.73/B in April-May and with Brent tumbling 7.5% in June, it will be pushed...