The latest data on global supply and demand trends reinforces bearish sentiment in the oil markets. Stocks are remaining stubbornly high, and with compliance to Opec cuts faltering, the pace of rebalancing continues to slow.

July monthly oil market reports from both the IEA and Opec imply that despite Opec cuts, global stocks barely shrank at all in the first half of the year and may even have grown. One glimmer of hope for Opec is that both reports are now revising down their longer-term...