Libya’s crude output hit 1mn b/d in July for the first time since 2014. IOCs hope for further gains – but continued instability means they aren’t banking on them.

Most of the larger IOCs active in Libya continue to report headline production numbers ‘excluding Libya,’ even when, as has been the case in recent months, the news is generally positive. They are not yet willing to bank on recent improvements in security and output continuing. And, despite positive...