Opec gained an element of respite last August as Libyan outages drove the group’s production down to a three-month low of 32.62mn b/d. But with Libya restarting production at a key field, output is set to rise again in September. With Kazakhstan also ramping up output from its giant Kashagan field, the Opec-led efforts to stabilize the oil market are about to take another hit.

Despite the Libyan outages, Opec production was still a massive 700,000 b/d above its 31.92mn b/d output...