Oil majors are expecting, indeed embracing, a ‘lower for longer’ or ‘lower for ever’ oil price world. But, with ‘peak demand’ on the horizon, Opec risks getting trapped in a cycle where ‘lower for ever’ refers to output as well as price.

The consensus from this year’s Oil & Money conference in London is that oil prices are likely to fluctuate around a $55-60/B band for some time to come. Approach $60/B for WTI (around the low $60s...