Opec expects to have its cake and eat it with its current policy of output restraint – higher prices in the near term, with higher market share over the long term. Both Opec and the IEA project that oil demand (and thus output) will keep rising beyond 2040. But plenty of other forecasts are much less bullish. With a rapid rise in non-Opec deepwater output already in train, Opec would be the big loser should ‘peak demand’ arrive sooner rather than later.

Opec’s World...