Baghdad’s Northern Oil output is down despite taking over major Kirkuk fields in October. The decision to halt exports via Kurdistan despite the lack of viable alternative routes to market means near-term prospects for an increase look grim.

Baghdad’s forces in late October retook the symbolically significant city of Kirkuk from the KRG as well as oil fields with around 280,000 b/d production capacity in and around the city: 70,000 b/d from the Avana Dome and 210,000 b/d from...