With revenues slashed by the loss of 280,000 b/d of Kirkuk crude, the KRG is ramping up austerity measures through further planned salary cuts. This belt-tightening will concern IOCs, especially as their monthly payments from Erbil are now overdue.

Baghdad’s 16 October reclamation of Kirkuk denied the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) access to around 280,000 b/d of crude production. MEES calculates the lost exports would have realized around $760mn in the subsequent period –...