2018 brings a new opportunity for a comprehensive peace deal in Libya. But, when it comes to oil production, the risks are largely on the downside.

As has often been the case since the toppling of former leader Muammar al-Qadhafi in 2011, the future of Libya hangs in the balance. A peace settlement signed at Skhirat in Morocco in December 2015 is widely accepted to have failed to achieve its aims. Three months have passed since another UN-sponsored plan was set out: although some progress...