Reeling from the loss of 280,000 b/d production when Iraqi forces captured key Kirkuk fields in October 2017, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is unlikely to see sizeable production gains from fields under its control in 2018  threatening IOC payments and potentially fomenting further instability.

The KRG had hoped in 2013 for crude exports to reach “1mn b/d by the end of 2015 and 2mn b/d by 2019.” It has been a roller-coaster ride since (though output has never...