Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, the nearest thing Opec has to a leader, says he expects the Opec+ deal limiting crude output to continue into 2019. But he also suggests changing the methodology to one that would assess the market as closer to rebalance – the current deal’s stated end goal. Crude prices at their highest level since late 2014 also point in this direction. But the interests of both core participants, Saudi Arabia and Russia, make a formal wind-down unlikely.

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