As the second US shale revolution continues to gather pace, prospects for Opec being able to unwind its supply cuts in 2019 grow dimmer. Luckily for Opec, its ability to add sizeable volumes next year is also diminishing. The extent of the group’s “involuntary cuts” is growing and these are falling on those countries most likely to consider cheating, preventing them from reneging on any extended commitments.

1: IEA EYES SHORT-TERM OPEC CAPACITY FALL BEFORE IRAQ, IRAN...