Opec production fell to an 11-month low in March as “involuntary cuts” from its weakest members continued to pile up. Output averaged 32.14mn b/d, down 230,000 b/d on January and the lowest since April 2017’s 32.09mn b/d. March was the third consecutive monthly decline and so unsurprisingly the Q1 average was also down. At 32.31mn b/d, the quarter was the lowest since 2Q16’s 32.25mn b/d.

Conversely, Russia, the most important of the 10 non-Opec countries...