Southern exports have been maxed out at 3.46mn b/d over the last six months, and the stress is taking its toll on aging infrastructure. The 12 May elections are set to delay efforts to redress the government’s dependency on the Basra chokepoint.

Federal Iraqi crude exports have been running at record levels for the past six months, despite the absence of any northern exports from Kirkuk. Exports averaged 3.46mn b/d over the past six months, marking the first instance when they have...