US output forecasts keep being revised up with oil prices. But buoyant demand and falling output elsewhere mean global markets continue to tighten (see p8). The EIA forecasts a further leap to 12mn b/d crude output, almost 17mn b/d including NGLs, next year. But infrastructure constraints may cap gains from the key Permian shale basin.

The latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), released 8 May, provides only the latest in...