The IEAs’ first oil market outlook for 2019 highlights both the uncertainties surrounding next week’s Opec meeting in Vienna and the toll that the 2014 oil price slump has taken on the group. Although the largest producers in the Opec+ agreement want to boost output, the need for unanimity within Opec could prove a major stumbling block.

The IEA projects that global oil demand will grow by 1.43mn b/d to top 100mn barrels for the first time in 2019. But, despite this acceleration...