Opec (and ‘non-Opec’) output policy will be one of two key determinants as to whether global oil supplies will be able to keep pace with demand over the coming 12 months. The other is the prognosis for US shale output. Stretched infrastructure, particularly for takeaway pipeline capacity from Permian, is clouding the outlook.

Collective US shale oil output topped 7mn b/d for the first time in May. At 7.07mn b/d, it’s up a massive 1.47mn b/d year-on-year, topping the...