Until mid-June Libya was looking at seven straight quarters of increased output. NOC had begun to hope the second half of 2018 would see a much-needed return to long-term upstream investment. But a return of ‘instability as usual’ has kicked such hopes into the long grass.

Libya has been working hard to get IOCs active in the country to commit to new upstream investment. But despite these companies’ 1H results showing their most buoyant Libya output figures in five years,...