The US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) has scaled back its forecasts for output growth this year and next in the light of infrastructure bottlenecks which are increasingly limiting output growth at Texas’ key Permian shale play, which now accounts for 30% of US crude output.

Should the latest downward revisions to the EIA's US crude output projections play out, or, indeed, intensify over the coming months, this will have a major impact on the global...