Turkey’s imports of crude oil from Iran fell to 69,800 b/d in June, freshly released import stats show. This is only slightly above last November as the lowest figure since 2012. Iran was by far Turkey’s top supplier for 1H 2018 as a whole, with 172,500 b/d (a 46.7% market share), and an average of 221,000 b/d for March-May.

It may, however, be too soon to present this as a definitive downward trend in the face of US pressure. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has insisted...