Despite running budget surpluses in the last two years, Iraq is in danger of running costly fiscal deficits in the ‘medium term,’ the IMF said in an Article 4 statement this week.

 Government salaries and other current spending is growing so much so that even with exports running at near-record volumes (see p2), a sizeable deficit is predicted for 2019.

Recently released data from the Central Bank of Iraq shows that Baghdad ran a $21.6bn (ID 25.7tn) surplus last year.