Mustafa Sanalla, head of Libya’s NOC, has a long list of ambitious projects. But even the straightforward ones are hostage to the country’s chronic instability. With an improved security situation Libya could quite easily add around 300-400,000 b/d, he says. But things could just as easily go the other way.

From a sheer output perspective Libya is at its best in years. The country’s “25/7” oil supremo Mustafa Sanalla has managed to boost output to near-1.3mn...