Opec production tumbled 290,000 b/d in June, primarily driven by outages in Libya and Iran. But even at a near-five-year low of 29.90mn b/d, production may have to fall further and for longer if Opec is to achieve its aim of rebalancing global markets.

The IEA’s July Oil Market Report (OMR) published on 12 July stated “the widely-anticipated decision by Opec+ ministers to extend their output agreement to March 2020 provides guidance but it does not change the fundamental outlook...