Opec Production Growth Picks Up In November, But Still Remains Well Under Output Ceiling

...awed” at the World Petroleum Congress in Houston this week. “It does not help when the pressure is mounting to stop all new investments in oil and gas. Across the industry, upstream capex fell by more than 50% between 2014 and last year, from $700bn to $300bn,” he says. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Po...

Opec, IEA Counter Market Euphoria With Demand Downgrades

...e price decline that started in 2014.” The authors assume a further 20% reduction in investment in 2021 and warn that “industry investment will have to rise over the next three years by at least 25% yearly from 2020 levels to stave off a crisis.” OPEC PRODUCTION BEGINS THE JOURNEY BACK FROM ITS CO...

Italy Crude Imports: Q3 Bounceback, Libya Volumes Set To Soar In Q4

...rong rebound in Q3 volumes to leave 9M 2020 imports down just 3% year-on-year (MEES, 4 December). *With little sign of a buying upturn in Q4, 2020’s Italian imports are set to come in below 2014’s 1.09mn b/d as the lowest this century. *Imports from key supplier Saudi Arabia almost halved in Q3 to...

Saudi Arabia Adds Record Volumes To Crude Stocks

...low 1mn b/d for the first time since April 2015. At 12%, refined products’ share of total liquids output was the lowest since June 2015. Total liquids exports fell to 8.02mn b/d, its lowest level since December 2014 (see chart 2). Volumes over the first 10 months of 2019 have averaged 8.31mn b/d, do...

US Shale: 2019 Records But Is Growth Flatlining?

...A stats (see p11). Whilst 2019 growth is well below 2018’s record 1.64mn b/d it is only slightly below the previous record of 1.29mn b/d set in 2014 (MEES, 13 July 2015). And, whilst output largely flatlined in the first half of 2019, it has since leapt, with new records every month since Au...

Economic Uncertainty Clouds Opec’s 2020 Vision

...dicate an additional 144mn barrels of crude will enter global stockpiles, while Opec’s numbers point to a more modest 39mn barrels. As for current inventories, the latest IEA numbers peg OECD stocks exiting October at 2.9bn barrels, fractionally (2.9mn barrels) below the 2014-18 five-year average, while Op...

Opec Output On Track For Eight-Year Low

...om falling further. With output down 560,000 b/d this year, it is on track to come in at 9.76mn b/d, the lowest annual figure since 2014. Arguably the biggest question oil markets have regarding Opec now is, for how long will Saudi Arabia continue bearing the brunt of the cuts? The kingdom plans to...

Saudi Arabia: Cutting Its Way To A 2019 Production Increase?

...s commitments and still post a year-on-year production increase. The kingdom’s apparent munificence is taking place from record heights and it can afford to “cut” from these and still produce at a level significantly above that prior to the 2014 price crash. It may even come close to matching 20...

Market Fundamentals Point To Choppy Outlook For Opec

...16’s 10.36mn b/d. In other words, since prices crashed in late 2014 amid the US Shale Revolution, the kingdom has actually been producing at record levels. LIGHT, TIGHT GLUT?                The other key planned cuts will come from UAE, Kuwait and Iraq, and all four of these, like neighboring Ir...

Opec In 2018: More Revenue Less Market Share?

...13 2014 2015 2016 2017^ vs 2016 2018^ vs 20...

Libya: Output Boost Imminent?

...the Murzuq basin in the southwest, operated more-or-less consistently from late-2011 to November 2014 but since then have been shut in by protestors blocking the pipeline at Rayayina in Zintan region, the site of a pumping station en route to Zawiya port. The fields are operated by Spain’s Repsol, wh...

Opec Hits New Record Output as Attention Switches to Non-Opec

...n-Nov16 v Jan-Nov15 2015 2014 S Arabia* 10.43 -0.05 +0.18 10.48 10.06 -0.37 10.35 +0.15 10.20 9.70 Iraq 4.64 +0....

Opec Agrees To Cut, But Questions Remain Over Implementation

...at Opec revenues are set to fall below $430bn this year, less than half of 2014 levels (see table). Oil prices reacted positively to the agreement and have risen around $7/B since the day before the meeting. As MEES went to press, Brent was just over $54/B, its highest level this year. Of course, fa...

The World’s Top Oil* Producer (Mn B/D): Saudi Output Recently Edged Past The US For The First Time Since Early 2014. But The US Is Set To Regain Top Spot Next Year And Keep It Until Shale Output Declines In The 2030s

OPEC Taps To Stay Open In 2016

...tput in 2016, but there is considerably greater uncertainty over whether it can achieve this. The biggest loser over the past 12 months, the north African country has lost 340,000 b/d of output since November 2014, plummeting to 370,000 b/d as a result of conflict between two rival governments, co...

Prices Hit 11-Year Lows With No Sign Of A Reprieve

....49/B on 17 December, the lowest level since April 2004. The basket of 12 crudes – one from each member country – has averaged below $40/B every day this month. The average price of $35.16/B for December to date is down $5/B on November, $27/B on May, and a whopping $73/B, or 67.5%, on June 2014. On a mo...

OPEC’S $570 Billion Non-Decision

...an, which is more typical of Opec’s core Gulf members’ crude exports, fell to just $35/B on 10 December. Opec members can now expect to take in a mere $514bn in collective revenue for 2015, down by a whopping 47% or $451bn on 2014 (see tables). This is despite output having risen in the meantime (se...

Opec Production Rises Further As Opposing Camps Go Their Own Way

...Opec production edged upwards in November, reaching an average of 31.82mn b/d, up 30,000 b/d from October. While this is more than was averaged in any month in 2014, it barely sneaks into the top four for 2015, underlining the extent to which Opec producers continue to pump as quickly as they ca...

Opec Opens Its Arms To A Net Importer

...Indonesia will be formally welcomed back into Opec on 1 January, having suspended its membership in 2009. Crude production is currently around 800,000 b/d, but with domestic consumption at 1.6mn b/d according to BP figures in 2014, it is a net importer of around 800,000 b/d. Plans for the Ba...

Kuwait: Does Ministerial Shake-Up Indicate A Firm Stance?

...nuary 2014. He becomes Kuwait’s fourth oil minister in less than three years. However, the revolving door at the ministry has little impact on policy, which is set by the Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC). It does however underline Kuwait’s continued political volatility – a deterrent for IOCs. That said, th...