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Barrels or Beliefs? The First Net Short in WTI and the Power of Market Narratives
...iqueness of the August 2025 event becomes clearer in historical context. During the 2008 financial crisis, speculative longs collapsed but never shifted into net short territory. In the 2014–2015 price collapse, hedge funds built significant short positions, yet the aggregate positioning in WTI remained ne...
Volume: 68Issue: 36Published at Fri, 05 Sep 2025 -
OPEC At 60: Much Achieved, More Still To Come
...wnturn of 2014-16, and has played a major role in reviving the oil industry on the back of the unprecedented oil demand impact as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The decisions taken by the 23 DoC countries in April and June 2020 were well-informed and well-communicated and provided reassurance to th...
Volume: 63Issue: 38Published at Fri, 18 Sep 2020 -
IOC Reserves Growth Mantra: Is Repsol Move The Beginning Of The End?
...e previous 100 years. There were also issues linked to ‘unburnable carbon’ coupled with the ‘divest campaign’. The final nail in the coffin was the much lower oil prices after 2014. The IOCs, who were well aware of these growing problems, began to seek solutions. Mega-mergers, which had been th...
Volume: 61Issue: 25Published at Fri, 22 Jun 2018 -
Oil Markets: A Turn Away from Trade?
...wn to 1990s levels (MEES, 19 December 2014). Even with Opec cutting output in a landmark agreement at the end of 2016, it will not be enough to bring back the age of scarcity. Rather, the global oil markets look headed for tenuous balance, vulnerable as much to new supplies as new di...
Volume: 60Issue: 06Published at Fri, 10 Feb 2017 -
Economic Reform In The GCC: Is Privatization A Panacea?
...By - Paul Stevens* The collapse in oil prices since 2014 has presented serious economic challenges for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), underscoring the need to diversify their economies away from oil and, above all, develop their private sectors. Brent fell from $11...
Volume: 59Issue: 50Published at Fri, 16 Dec 2016 -
Oil Data: Is It Becoming More Reliable?
...use, London, 27 January 2014 The words of former Opec chief Mr Badri echo similar sentiments expressed in June 1991 by a previous Opec Secretary General, Dr Subroto. At the time, Dr Subroto’s words inspired me and my late colleague Jack Hartshorn to examine the state of oil market information. We co...
Volume: 59Issue: 38Published at Fri, 23 Sep 2016 -
Saudi ‘Dumping’ Has Cannibalized Opec Revenue For Minor Long-Term Gains
...Opec’s Saudi Arabia-driven policy of maximizing market share at the expense of revenue is economically illogical. The policy has been driven by political motives. Opec members’ revenue losses resulting from the oil price collapse since late 2014 far exceed any likely long term gains from in...
Volume: 59Issue: 07Published at Fri, 19 Feb 2016 -
Iran’s Rohani: A Mid-Term Report
...veral months to materialize. And, finally, strong opposition by domestic hardliners to the agreement’s content in both Iran and the US, and the document’s initial uncertain fate in both the US Congress and the Iranian Majlis. To combat the lingering economic slack President Rohani, in August 2014, pr...
Volume: 59Issue: 01Published at Fri, 08 Jan 2016 -
Iran: The Subsidies Dilemma
...fore. Pressured by various forces, the Rohani team finally came up with a new plan. The subsidies “second phase” promised to start from the third month of Iran’s New Year (May 2014). Monthly cash payments were now to be given to the head of each family after (1) he or she answered a questionnaire re...
Volume: 58Issue: 41Published at Fri, 09 Oct 2015 -
Gulf Oil Economies Must Wake Up Or Face Decades Of Decline
...ICES ($/B) Average Projections 2000–11 2012 2013 2014 2015 20...
Volume: 58Issue: 33Published at Fri, 14 Aug 2015 -
The Iran Nuclear Deal And Oil Markets
...llapse since June 2014, the IOCs, in an effort to satisfy investor expectations, were cutting back on capital investments in exploration, development and production. In a world of now much lower oil prices these cuts have accelerated. NEW, MORE ATTRACTIVE TERMS Thus to compete for shrinking IOC in...
Volume: 58Issue: 30Published at Fri, 24 Jul 2015 -
Upstream Investment Climate Unstable, Forecast: More Of The Same
...vestment is being transformed by recent price volatility and the potential for low prices longer-term, a tough financial environment and the impending strengthening of policy to mitigate climate change. Between June 2014 and January 2015, Brent crude prices plunged by 60%, from $115/B to $45/B, ca...
Volume: 58Issue: 29Published at Fri, 17 Jul 2015 -
Iran’s Oil And Gas Sector: The Post-Sanctions Opportunities
...tural gas from the country may find this approach rewarding. Iran’s gas production can easily increase considerably. According to BP’s latest Statistical Review of World Energy, Iran’s gas reserves at end-2014 were nearly 3.5 times that of the US, while its gas production in 2014 was less than one qu...
Volume: 58Issue: 28Published at Fri, 10 Jul 2015 -
Iran’s Oil Production Boost Scenarios In A Post-Sanctions Era
...ss energy and boosting efficiency, while in the EU there is economic stagnation. Globally, there is an oversupply in the oil market, which contributed to oil prices plummeting in 2014. This downward trend created huge uncertainty and speculation in the market. The sharp oil price fall in 2014, du...
Volume: 58Issue: 27Published at Fri, 03 Jul 2015 -
The Image Of GCC Oil Policy In The Western Media
...imi was named by the Financial Times as the energy personality for 2014 ‘for the fact that he has done nothing,’7 which itself is a policy decision. GEOPOLITICS AND OIL POLICY There is also an inclination by some of the western media to frame Saudi oil policy within a geopolitical framework. Un...
Volume: 58Issue: 17Published at Fri, 24 Apr 2015 -
Saudi Refining Push Exposes Strategic Shift Away From Crude Exports
...amco 550,000 Petro Rabigh 1990 Saudi Aramco (37.5%), Sumitomo Chemical 425,000 Jubail (Satorp) 2014 Saudi Aramco (62.5%), Total 40...
Volume: 58Issue: 15Published at Fri, 10 Apr 2015 -
Oil prices: How Long Can They Stay Low?
...veral years. - By Professor Paul Stevens* Since June 2014, the international price of crude oil has fallen by around 60%. Since the start of this year, Brent has averaged around $54/B. Given that the average price between 2008 and 2013 was $99/B (2013 dollars), this can be viewed as a “low” pr...
Volume: 58Issue: 13Published at Fri, 27 Mar 2015 -
OPEC Faces $750bn Losses From Market Share Strategy
...r: An Economic Fiasco”, MEES, 6 October 1986, reprinted in Robert Mabro, The 1986 Oil Price Crisis: Economic Effects and Policy Responses, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 1988, Chapter 7. 2 OPEC MOMR, 12 November 2014, pp 83, 85. 3 OPEC World Oil Outlook, 6 November 2014, page 32. 4 In...
Volume: 58Issue: 11Published at Fri, 13 Mar 2015 -
Saudi Arabia: How Long Will Its Buffers Last If Oil Prices Stay Low?
...at comes at the expense of oil prices – the policy which won out at OPEC’s November meeting (MEES, 28 November 2014). In this context, Saudi Arabia’s high reliance on petroleum for export earnings and budget revenues has brought the sustainability of its external and fiscal positions under the sp...
Volume: 58Issue: 09Published at Fri, 27 Feb 2015 -
Stand-Off In San’a: Yemen’s Crisis Worries The World
...unterterrorism problem. Action against Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) targets has continued - three died in a 27 January drone strike. In September 2014, President Obama prematurely credited Yemen as being a successful example of US counterterrorism strategy. The Yemeni links to the terrorist attacks in...
Volume: 58Issue: 05Published at Fri, 30 Jan 2015