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Will Oil Price Rebound Delay Market Balance?
...pidly: averaging 4.0mn b/d for 2015, up 670,000 b/d on 2014, recent major cuts to capex mean such gains will not be repeated this year. As if just to make sure its output would not be constrained by any Opec deal, Iraq’s Oil Minister ‘Adil ‘Abd al-Mahdi claimed on 17 March during the Sulaymaniyah Forum 4....
Volume: 59Issue: 11Published at Fri, 18 Mar 2016 -
Iraq, Nigeria Outages Lead Opec Production Fall
...minently. OPEC WELLHEAD PRODUCTION, FEBRUARY 2016 (MN B/D, MEES ESTIMATES) Feb '16 Jan '16 Feb v Jan vs Feb '15 2015 2014 S Ar...
Volume: 59Issue: 10Published at Fri, 11 Mar 2016 -
Iraq Output Falls From January Record, Double-Counting Confusion Reigns
...bsequently assuming operatorship. ‘Khurmala’ output for 2014 was just 113,000 b/d: as with the recent ‘jump’ in federal output this ‘increase’ is largely, if not wholly, chimeric coming from the takeover of the additional fields. What is not chimeric is that massive investment in southern Iraqi export in...
Volume: 59Issue: 10Published at Fri, 11 Mar 2016 -
US Imports Of Opec Crude Rebound From 30-Year Lows
...• The US imported 7.90mn b/d of crude in December, the highest volume since September 2013. For 2015 as a whole volumes at 7.35mn b/d were little-changed from 2014’s 20-year low, but they rose strongly late in the year after the December lifting of a 40-year old ban on seaborne crude ex...
Volume: 59Issue: 09Published at Fri, 04 Mar 2016 -
IEA Warns Of Future Price Spike As Opec Divisions Deepen
...ALED BACK (MN B/D) *ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE INDONESIA. ...AS SUPPLY GROWTH STUTTERS Despite revising up global demand figures, the IEA still sees little prospect of crude markets balancing until 2017. The IEA says supply exceeded demand by 900,000 b/d and 2mn b/d in 2014 and 2015 re...
Volume: 59Issue: 08Published at Fri, 26 Feb 2016 -
Middle East Refiners To Add 2.3mn B/D Capacity By 2022-IEA
...true of some Middle East refiners. Saudi Arabia started up 400,000 b/d of refineries in 2013 and 2014 and UAE started up a 417,000 b/d plant in 2015, all aimed at exports. The IEA says the pace of Middle East refining capacity expansion in the medium term will slow and also depend to a large ex...
Volume: 59Issue: 08Published at Fri, 26 Feb 2016 -
Global Oil Overhang To Persist Throughout 2016
...17, down 1.17mn b/d from the Q2 2015 peak of 9.50mn b/d, but still level with 1H 2014 volumes. Opec has left its global demand projections unchanged in its latest monthly oil market report (10 February) and has revised up its forecast for the fall in non-Opec supply in 2016 by 50,000 b/d to 71...
Volume: 59Issue: 06Published at Fri, 12 Feb 2016 -
Iran And Saudi Arabia Drive Opec Output Rise As Indonesia Returns
...2mn b/d to 3.5mn b/d by 2017, Iran looks set to pull away. Kuwait has fallen behind since October 2014, when a dispute with Saudi Arabia over management of the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) led to production falling there, and halting altogether in 2015. Chevron said in its Q4 2015 conference call on 29 Ja...
Volume: 59Issue: 05Published at Fri, 05 Feb 2016 -
OPEC Risks Becoming An Irrelevance As Revenue Again Tanks
...at Opec says would require a massive $10 trillion in investment. PROBLEM, WHOSE PROBLEM? Mr Badri pulled out a slide showing that all of the net global supply growth – some 6mn b/d of it – between 2008 and 2014 came from non-Opec countries. The inference is: ‘They caused the problem, it’s th...
Volume: 59Issue: 04Published at Fri, 29 Jan 2016 -
OPEC Revenue Lowest For 11 Years; Markets Indicate Further Slide In 2016
...alyst notes. They can’t afford to maintain social spending. But they can’t afford not to. OPEC 2016 OIL EXPORT REVENUE WOULD BE 70% DOWN ON 2014 BASED ON CURRENT FUTURES PRICES ($BN) SOURCE: OPEC, DME, *MEES CALCULATIONS. FOR 2016 'A' USES AVERAGE BRENT FUTURES FOR 1-21 JAN; 'B' USES AV...
Volume: 59Issue: 04Published at Fri, 29 Jan 2016 -
Iran Return Sends Prices, Revenue Into The Deep Freeze
...mped up estimates of by how much and how quickly Iran can ramp up production and exports. MEES estimates that Iran produced 2.89mn b/d in December, little changed from average 2014 and 2015 levels but 700,000 b/d down on 3.6mn b/d 2011 volumes. Exports last year remained rangebound at 1....
Volume: 59Issue: 03Published at Fri, 22 Jan 2016 -
US Crude Defies Expectations, Thwarts Saudi Strategy
...d the country’s 16-year low rig count numbers (see p19), posting an average of 9.4mn b/d in 2015 – up a further 100,000 b/d on the figure the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) was predicting even a month ago – versus 8.7mn b/d in 2014. It does however estimate a larger fall in cr...
Volume: 59Issue: 02Published at Fri, 15 Jan 2016 -
Opec Signs Off 2015 With Record Output
...venue in 2015 would be down a hefty $47.4bn from 2014 (a drop of 43.9%), the UAE remains committed to increasing production capacity from around 3.2mn b/d to 3.5mn b/d in 2017. While this won’t necessitate additional production, it makes a reduction less likely. Iran also looks set to go head to he...
Volume: 59Issue: 01Published at Fri, 08 Jan 2016 -
OPEC Taps To Stay Open In 2016
...tput in 2016, but there is considerably greater uncertainty over whether it can achieve this. The biggest loser over the past 12 months, the north African country has lost 340,000 b/d of output since November 2014, plummeting to 370,000 b/d as a result of conflict between two rival governments, co...
Volume: 58Issue: 52Published at Wed, 23 Dec 2015 -
Prices Hit 11-Year Lows With No Sign Of A Reprieve
....49/B on 17 December, the lowest level since April 2004. The basket of 12 crudes – one from each member country – has averaged below $40/B every day this month. The average price of $35.16/B for December to date is down $5/B on November, $27/B on May, and a whopping $73/B, or 67.5%, on June 2014. On a mo...
Volume: 58Issue: 51Published at Fri, 18 Dec 2015 -
OPEC’S $570 Billion Non-Decision
...an, which is more typical of Opec’s core Gulf members’ crude exports, fell to just $35/B on 10 December. Opec members can now expect to take in a mere $514bn in collective revenue for 2015, down by a whopping 47% or $451bn on 2014 (see tables). This is despite output having risen in the meantime (se...
Volume: 58Issue: 50Published at Fri, 11 Dec 2015 -
Opec Production Rises Further As Opposing Camps Go Their Own Way
...Opec production edged upwards in November, reaching an average of 31.82mn b/d, up 30,000 b/d from October. While this is more than was averaged in any month in 2014, it barely sneaks into the top four for 2015, underlining the extent to which Opec producers continue to pump as quickly as they ca...
Volume: 58Issue: 50Published at Fri, 11 Dec 2015 -
Opec Opens Its Arms To A Net Importer
...Indonesia will be formally welcomed back into Opec on 1 January, having suspended its membership in 2009. Crude production is currently around 800,000 b/d, but with domestic consumption at 1.6mn b/d according to BP figures in 2014, it is a net importer of around 800,000 b/d. Plans for the Ba...
Volume: 58Issue: 50Published at Fri, 11 Dec 2015 -
Kuwait: Does Ministerial Shake-Up Indicate A Firm Stance?
...nuary 2014. He becomes Kuwait’s fourth oil minister in less than three years. However, the revolving door at the ministry has little impact on policy, which is set by the Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC). It does however underline Kuwait’s continued political volatility – a deterrent for IOCs. That said, th...
Volume: 58Issue: 49Published at Fri, 04 Dec 2015 -
Saudi Stance Wins Out At Opec Meeting
...ying to secretly broker an output cut. In truth any ‘deal’ that would rest on cuts from not only Iran but also other, non-Opec, countries like Russia was never going to fly. Unlike in November 2014, no non-Opec countries were even present, although Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi says he is “always ready to...
Volume: 58Issue: 49Published at Fri, 04 Dec 2015