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OPEC May Production Drops Despite Saudi And Iran Increases
...8.6mn b/d for 2016 and 8.2mn b/d for 2017. Meanwhile, in an indication that the global crude overhang is beginning to tighten amid falling non-Opec output in not only the US but in countries as diverse as Mexico and Ghana, US commercial crude stocks fell by 8mn barrels in May from April’s 54...
Volume: 59Issue: 23Published at Fri, 10 Jun 2016 -
Opec: Fit For Purpose? What Purpose Is That Exactly?
...vernment’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) is now forecasting 2016 crude output of 8.60mn, down from 2015’s record 9.43mn b/d, with a further 400,000 b/d fall forecast for 2017. But of course, as the Saudis and other Gulf producers are acutely aware, these forecasts are highly sensitive to prices. Th...
Volume: 59Issue: 22Published at Fri, 03 Jun 2016 -
Latest Us Output Figures And Projections
...CRUDE OUTPUT THIS YEAR... EIA 2017V16 AND 2016V15 FORECASTS BY DATE OF FORECAST. ...BUT WITH A 150,000 B/D UPWARD REVISION TO ITS 2017 FORECAST THE END MIGHT BE IN SIGHT EIA 2017V16 AND 2016V15 FORECASTS BY DATE OF FORECAST....
Volume: 59Issue: 22Published at Fri, 03 Jun 2016 -
Iran Output Rebound Sets Stage For Saudi Stand-Off In Vienna
...16 contract, prices which imply an average value of $45/B for 2016 as a whole. The EIA report cited stronger than expected economic data as a key contributory factor. This has led the EIA to revise global demand projections upwards by 0.3mn b/d and 0.2mn b/d for 2016 and 2017 respectively, le...
Volume: 59Issue: 19Published at Fri, 13 May 2016 -
Upstream Investment Slump Presages Output Crunch, Oil Chiefs Warn
...ffontaines. RECOVERY IMMINENT According to the IEA, supply and demand in the oil market will rebalance by 2017. “In 2016 we should see a surplus of about 1mn b/d following a 2mn b/d surplus in 2015; in 2017 there will be a balancing, with demand higher than supply going forward over the rest of the next 5 ye...
Volume: 59Issue: 17Published at Fri, 29 Apr 2016 -
Crude Price Gains Further Reduce Incentive For Output Freeze
...at low prices are taking a toll on US shale output, moving the market back towards balance. The US government’s Energy Information Administration now estimates that the country’s output will fall by 830,000 b/d this year and a further 560,000 b/d in 2017 (see p24). The risk is that recent price ri...
Volume: 59Issue: 16Published at Fri, 22 Apr 2016 -
Oil Market Inches Towards Balance, With Or Without Deal
...imb until they begin to be worked off in 2017. And the IEA acknowledges that its Q2-Q4 2016 numbers for Opec output are “conservative,” factoring in only relatively modest gains for Iran as financial sanctions continue to stymie its marketing efforts. Libya could also surprise on the upside for 20...
Volume: 59Issue: 15Published at Fri, 15 Apr 2016 -
OPEC Output Falls Ahead Of Meeting As UAE Outage Outweighs Iran Gains
...proaching balance is the director general of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) Sultan al-Jaber. He said this week that he expects prices to rise gradually and for the market to rebalance in 2016 and 2017 (see p2). However, there remain multiple variables that impact on this supply-demand dy...
Volume: 59Issue: 14Published at Fri, 08 Apr 2016 -
Will Oil Price Rebound Delay Market Balance?
...non-Opec output projections in general and those for the US in particular (see graph, MEES, 11 March). The US government’s Energy Information Administration’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released last week, revised down its projections of 2016 and 2017 crude output for the fifth month ru...
Volume: 59Issue: 11Published at Fri, 18 Mar 2016 -
Iraq, Nigeria Outages Lead Opec Production Fall
...recast, and now expects it will bottom out below 8mn b/d in Q3 2017 (see graph). OFFICIAL US CRUDE OUTPUT FORECAST REVISED DOWN BY A FURTHER 270,000 B/D FOR 2017 IN EIA’S LATEST ENERGY OUTLOOK, END-2016 FIGURE NOW 1.44MN B/D BELOW YEAR-AGO PREDICTION (MN B/D BY DATE OF FORECAST) SOURCE: EIA SH...
Volume: 59Issue: 10Published at Fri, 11 Mar 2016 -
IEA Warns Of Future Price Spike As Opec Divisions Deepen
...The supply glut of crude oil is set to extend into 2017 due to the resilience of non-Opec production, according to the IEA’s 2016 Medium Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR), released 22 February. But with global production capacity growth slowing over the report’s 2015-21 timeframe due to in...
Volume: 59Issue: 08Published at Fri, 26 Feb 2016 -
Middle East Refiners To Add 2.3mn B/D Capacity By 2022-IEA
...pected to complete its 146,000 b/d Ras Laffan 2 condensate splitter, while the 81,000 b/d expansion of Oman’s Sohar refinery – officially due for 2016 start-up – is expected “around 2017.” Saudi Arabia’s next big refinery, a 400,000 b/d plant at Jazan, is still slated for 2018 but “could well be delayed” as...
Volume: 59Issue: 08Published at Fri, 26 Feb 2016 -
Global Oil Overhang To Persist Throughout 2016
...A faltering global economy, dampening oil demand growth and the return of Iran to international markets ensure that oversupply in global oil markets will persist into 2017. Disarray within Opec means that a unified decision to reduce output remains as distant as ever. Moreover, both Opec an...
Volume: 59Issue: 06Published at Fri, 12 Feb 2016 -
Iran And Saudi Arabia Drive Opec Output Rise As Indonesia Returns
...2mn b/d to 3.5mn b/d by 2017, Iran looks set to pull away. Kuwait has fallen behind since October 2014, when a dispute with Saudi Arabia over management of the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) led to production falling there, and halting altogether in 2015. Chevron said in its Q4 2015 conference call on 29 Ja...
Volume: 59Issue: 05Published at Fri, 05 Feb 2016 -
US Crude Defies Expectations, Thwarts Saudi Strategy
...wn to the higher baseline. Output will bottom out at about 8.5mn b/d in November 2016 and “stay near 8.5mn b/d for most of 2017.” This level of production is some 1.2 million b/d below the April 2015 level, which was the highest monthly production since April 1971. “Productivity im...
Volume: 59Issue: 02Published at Fri, 15 Jan 2016 -
Opec Signs Off 2015 With Record Output
...venue in 2015 would be down a hefty $47.4bn from 2014 (a drop of 43.9%), the UAE remains committed to increasing production capacity from around 3.2mn b/d to 3.5mn b/d in 2017. While this won’t necessitate additional production, it makes a reduction less likely. Iran also looks set to go head to he...
Volume: 59Issue: 01Published at Fri, 08 Jan 2016 -
OPEC Taps To Stay Open In 2016
...likely to realize considerable gains in 2016, as it prioritizes development of non-associated gas fields, and negating natural decline at existing oil fields. Meanwhile, the UAE will press ahead with plans to increase production capacity from current levels of around 3.2mn b/d to 3.5mn b/d by 2017, which co...
Volume: 58Issue: 52Published at Wed, 23 Dec 2015 -
Iran Seeks To Reclaim Former Markets In 2016
...16, or a supply glut extending into 2017 (MEES, 18 December). Given Iran’s high natural decline rates of 8-10% per year and low recovery rates of 20-24%, any significant sustainable increase in crude production will require the investment and technical expertise of IOCs. Cognisant of this, Iran ha...
Volume: 58Issue: 52Published at Wed, 23 Dec 2015 -
Prices Hit 11-Year Lows With No Sign Of A Reprieve
...Oil prices are testing lows not hit since early 2004. Amid increasingly bullish signs that Iranian output will ramp up sooner rather than later, a market rebalance may have to wait to 2017. The IEA, in its 11 December oil market report, revises down its ‘call on Opec’ forecast for the fo...
Volume: 58Issue: 51Published at Fri, 18 Dec 2015 -
Saudi Stance Wins Out At Opec Meeting
...ndensate and NGLs) to its output by the end of next year then any market rebalance gets pushed back to 2017 (see graphs). If this analysis was repeated based on the Opec, rather than the IEA, demand forecasts the market would not even be close to balance. QUOTA CALL In the run up to the Opec me...
Volume: 58Issue: 49Published at Fri, 04 Dec 2015