Saudi War Aims Stumble (Again) In Fragmented Yemen

...With Salih dead and UAE-backed forces attacking Aden, Yemen is ungovernable. The harder Saudi Arabia pushes for military victory, the more it jeopardizes a settlement.  On 2 December 2017, long-time strongman and former president Ali Abd Allah Salih abandoned his Houthi allies and called fo...

Major Threat For Opec With Offshore Exploration Boom

...e years to come. This the same message that the IEA has been seeking to drive home since late 2015,  as it warns that “the recent spectacular decline in upstream oil and gas investment” presages “major concerns about the prospects for the adequacy of supply” (MEES, 21 July 2017). Based on ex...

Will 2018 Be Year Of Recovery For Egypt Independents?

...vestment. Egypt oil output slumped to a 35-year low of 629,000 b/d in 2017, with output from the Gulf of Suez, where smaller firms predominate, falling even more rapidly (see charts and MEES, 1 December 2017). Signs that 2018 will see an uptick in spending come from capex plans of Canadian-listed Gulf of...

Eni Discovery Doubles Cyprus Reserves; Is It Enough To Make It A Gas Producer?

...pth, it is a relatively modest 80km from the same company’s Egyptian 24tcf Zohr field, which entered production at the end of 2017 (MEES, 15 December 2017). Eni has regularly touted Zohr as a potential hub for East Med gas development. Eni’s Block 6 find, if confirmed, would be Cyprus’ second gas di...

Energean Makes Moves In Israel, Still No FID

...en it had reached 3bcm/y of gas sales from the field, which it did by the end of 2017. In December last year local investment group Ofer signed up for 2.6bcm/y of Karish gas, pushing total sales to 4.4bcm/y (see table) but again it baulked at announcing FID, delaying it a further three months (ME...

KRG To Struggle For Minor 2018 Production Gains

...Reeling from the loss of 280,000 b/d production when Iraqi forces captured key Kirkuk fields in October 2017, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is unlikely to see sizeable production gains from fields under its control in 2018  threatening IOC payments and potentially fomenting further in...

Qatar Sidesteps Trade Embargo With 20% Export Revenue Gain In 2017

...Qatar’s exports proceeded largely unimpeded in 2017 despite the Saudi-led embargo being in force since June. But failure to diversify its exports remains a major concern, as does a dependency on five countries for more than 60% of exports. Qatari export revenues soared 18% to $67bn in 2017...

QP Goes Big Off Mexico

...erica as part of a “very defined” expansion strategy (MEES, 8 December 2017). Four of QP’s new Mexican assets are in a consortium with Anglo-Dutch major Shell (60% op, QP 40%), Blocks 3, 4, 6, and 7 in the Perdido Basin. This abuts the US border in proximity to the Whale deep-water discovery an...

Japan Big Winner As Saudi Arabia Cuts Crude Exports

...Saudi crude exports to its five key markets, Japan, China, the US, South Korea and India, edged down 2% in 2017. Though this is a more modest dip than the 4% fall to 9.97mn b/d in the country’s crude output and the 9% fall to 6.96mn b/d for Saudi Arabia’s overall crude exports, the kingdom ha...

Iraq Hypes Over-Ambitious Refining, Export Capacity Targets

...aibi, with the unit due online by end-2018. The minister previously used this phrase in September regarding Salahuddin-1, but work on this appears to have been shelved in favor of Salahuddin-2 (MEES, 29 September 2017). Salahuddin-1 work will now take place “once the necessary funds have been al...

Iraq’s Crude Burn Falls From Peak As Generators Exploit Alternative Fuels

...rning in power plants averaged 134,000 b/d over January-November 2017, putting it on course for a more than 20% fall from 2016’s record 169,000 b/d (see charts). The reduced crude burn is enabling Iraq to direct more of its produced crude oil to export markets. Federal Iraqi crude exports for 2017 av...

Aramco In Development Deal For Crude To Chemicals Process

...emicals to the kingdom for the first time (MEES, 18 August 2017). As a gauge of the scale of the Aramco/Sabic oil to chemicals plan, the 26-unit Sadara project was one of the world’s most expensive infrastructure projects and the world’s largest integrated chemicals complex to be built in a single phase (ME...

Saudi-Russia Relations Mean Opec+ ‘Deal’ Will Continue. At What Price?

...al to tout ‘compliance’ of 129% for December. Whilst this is a flawed metric (MEES, 26 May 2017), it is one on which Opec increasingly chooses to focus. And the figure was likely even higher for January. With a further collapse in Venezuelan output far more likely than a rebound, this gives potential co...

Key Non-Opec Producers See Output Soar (Mn B/D)

...US CRUDE OUTPUT HIT 10.04MN B/D IN NOVEMBER, LEVEL WITH 1970’S ALL-TIME HIGH. OUTPUT IS FORECAST TO TOP 11MN B/D NEXT YEAR   BRAZIL CRUDE OUTPUT ROSE 4% TO A NEW ANNUAL RECORD OF 2.62MN B/D FOR 2017. A STRING OF NEW DEEPWATER DEVELOPMENTS PROMISE NEW RECORDS FOR 2018 (MN...

Corruption Destroying Libya’s Future, Says Oil Chief

...rvival of the country, said the oil chief, arguing that the fair distribution of oil revenue is Libya’s best guarantee of security. OIL MONEY SQUANDERED Libya’s crude output rebounded to an average of 824,000 b/d in 2017 from 380,000 b/d the previous year (MEES, 5 January). The value of each ba...

Sabic Profits Boost From Rising Oil Prices As Horizons Expand With Clariant Buy

...tlook for 2018, after “an increase in oil prices reflected positively on petrochemical prices” in 2017. However, the company will look to cut operating costs by 5-7% in 2018, “somewhat similar to 2017,” he told reporters at the firm’s 2017 results presentation on 28 January. Sabic’s net profit wa...

Kuwait Budget Deficit Set To Shrink In 2018-19 As Oil Prices Recover

...ding. A new cabinet was appointed in December after the previous body resigned in the face of parliamentary opposition (MEES, 15 December 2017), but Minister for Social Affairs and Labor Hind al-Sabeeh already faced a no-confidence vote this week – albeit one she survived easily. National Bank of Ku...

Japan 2017 LNG Imports: Qatar Volumes Fall To 7-Year Low As Australia Solidifies Top Supplier Spot

Sama Net Foreign Assets:

...SAUDI RESERVES* HAVE EDGED HIGHER WITH OIL PRICES IN RECENT MONTHS... *SAMA NET FOREIGN ASSETS ($BN, END PERIOD). SOURCE: SAMA, IMF, MEES.   ...BUT THEY STILL ENDED 2017 BELOW $500BN FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2010...

Algeria State Oil Chief Strikes Conciliatory Tone

...tput,” said Mr Ould Kaddour. Two other significant deals were signed in the closing weeks of 2017. On 20 December Sonatrach signed a $500mn deal with its two partners on the 9bcm/y In Amenas gas field, the UK’s BP and Norway’s Statoil. The agreement, designed to extend commercial production to 2035, wi...