Kuwait Slashes 2018-19 Deficit Thanks To Higher Oil Prices

...P. Kuwait’s economic performance has been lackluster since oil prices slumped in late 2014. Real GDP contracted by 3.5% in 2017, before rising by 1.7% in 2018 and a forecast 2.5% in 2019, according to the IMF. The World Bank is more pessimistic, forecasting growth of just 1.6% for 2019.      For th...

Oman Cuts Deficit, But Oil Dependence Remains

...til the crash in oil prices in 2014, Oman ran near balanced budgets and only had around $4bn in gross debt, or 5% of GDP.  But after four hard years of hard borrowing to cover costs and avoid civil unrest (MEES, 23 November 2018), the IMF projects that Oman will exit the year with $49bn in debt (61% of...

Kuwait Eyes Huge 2019-20 Budget Deficit

....7% of GDP. The expiry of the government’s authority to issue debt means it has had to tap into the General Reserve Fund (GRF) to finance deficits since 2014, and Finance Minister Nayif al-Hajraf has warned that the fund is suffering from a shortage of liquidity and requires a replenishment of fi...

Algeria Calls Time On Quantitative Easing

...vernment said it was an “urgent response” to the hole in Algeria’s finances left by the collapse in oil prices from the second half of 2014. Algeria notched up a record $24.3bn deficit in 2015. Though the country slashed spending in 2016, a further fall in oil prices (to an average of $44/B for Saharan Bl...

Tunisia Cuts It Fine With Just-In-Time Power Start-Ups

...ill below 2014’s 260mn cfd when FID was taken on Nawara. Tunis aims to curb its 96% reliance on gas for power generation and consequent import bill via a renewables revolution first outlined in 2016. It currently only has 302MW (240MW wind, a nominal 62MW of mostly-ancient hydro capacity, and pr...

Algeria Cuts Deficit For 2018: Gains Will Likely Prove Short-Lived

...Algeria notched up a $10.5bn deficit for 2018, the tenth in a row, though the lowest since oil prices crashed in the second half of 2014. But the numbers have taken a turn for the worse this year. And political instability presents a further downside risk. Freshly released financial stats fr...

Jordan’s Nepco: An End To Operating Losses?

...Jordan (MEES, 8 August 2011). Volumes fell from 220mn cfd in 2010 (which nearly met domestic demand) to 78mn cfd the following year forcing Jordan to increasingly import diesel and fuel oil to generate power just as oil prices were exceeding $100/B. By 2014, Nepco was relying on oil products fo...

Algeria’s Export Revenue Buffeted By US Shale Hurricane

...trade present an additional challenge for Algeria at this critical juncture. OIL OUTPUT DOWN   Algeria’s oil output (crude plus condensate) has fallen every year since 2014 to just 1.515mn b/d (1.041mn b/d crude, 474,000 b/d condensate) for 2018, the lowest since 2003 (see chart). Pr...

Iran Threat To Nuke Deal As Exports, Revenues Face Collapse

...uters ship-tracking indicates a record 800,000 b/d. If correct this would be an all-time high, eclipsing the previous record of 798,000 b/d set in April 2014 and the more recent July-August 2018 highs of 770-775,000 b/d. That said, more generally Chinese imports from Iran are down: 475,000 b/d for 1Q...

Saudi Government Posts First Surplus Since 2014 In Q1

Libya’s 2019 Budget: Fact or Fiction?

...y new hires since 2014 – when it came into being – it also funds the Libyan National Army (LNA), which has been busy in recent months adding swathes of territory to its control (MEES, 22 March). To cover its running costs, the eastern ‘government’ has sold $23bn in bonds since 2014 (purchased by it...

Algeria’s Economic Sclerosis: Political Change Is Not Enough

...pendent on oil and gas for a whopping 60% of budget revenue and over 93% of 2018 export earnings, shares that have barely shifted in recent decades. As long as oil prices were over $100/B, as was the case from late 2010 until 3Q 2014, Algiers managed to paper over the cracks. But, as Warren Buffet sa...

IMF Slams GCC

...d have yet to “fully recover” from the 2014 slump in oil prices. Average public debt for Mena oil exporters soared from 13% of GDP in 2013 to 33% for 2018; for oil importers the figure is 85%, Ms Lagarde says. “Fiscal deficits are only slowly declining despite significant reforms on both the sp...

Kuwait 2019-20 Budget Envisages Bumper Deficit Amid Faltering Oil Prices

....6bn, 93.7% of total income. This would be the highest oil revenue since 2014-15, and the greatest share of the total since 2012-13. Efforts at economic diversification remain as stubbornly distant as ever. Mr Hajraf estimated the breakeven oil price at $75/B before allocation of the mandatory 10% of...

Egypt Delays Subsidy Reform With Economy On The Mend

...ntribution to GDP during 2017-18 was a record, but once that is converted to dollars, the $5.95bn was the highest since 2014-15. Tourism receipts for the first half of 2018 rose to $4.8bn, with full year numbers estimated to reach $9.1bn, the highest since 2012. The sector has been rocked by a series of se...

Algeria Set For 11th Straight Deficit In 2019

...ICES WERE OVER $100/B AS SPENDING MUSHROOMED TO HEAD OFF ‘ARAB SPRING’ CONTAGion; DEFICITS BALlOONED AS OIL PRICES SLUMPED FROM 2014   2: BREAKEVEN VS ACTUAL saharan blend* PRICES ($/B): EVEN BASED ON OPTIMISTIC 2019 BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS ALGERIA WILL NEED $88/B TO BALANCE THE BOOKS; FOR 2018 IT...

Fitch ‘Junks’ Oman

...one rung above junk (MEES, 23 March), whilst S&P on 9 November affirmed Oman at BB with a stable outlook. Oman has seen several downgrades since oil prices dived in the second half of 2014. Despite this year’s oil price recovery, Oman has been unable to improve its deficit-to-GDP ratio. This ha...

Saudi Reveals Optimistic 2019 Budget But Still Expects To Load Up On Debt

...is is a year-on-year increase of $11.2bn but is still well down on the August 2014 peak of $746bn. Clearly there is considerable scope for the kingdom to again turn to its reserves to finance its deficits, but with Riyadh not planning on balancing the budget before 2023, it can’t lean too heavily on th...

Qatar: New 2.5GW Plant Powers Economic Growth

...erage electricity demand growth of around 10% a year during 2014-16, according to Kahramaa data. With thousands of visitors set to descend on Qatar for the 2022 World Cup, this could mean new peak demand records. With that in mind, Qatar still has major power projects due online in the near te...

Algeria Set For $5bn 2018 Trade Deficit: As Good As It Gets?

...RTHER RISE IN OIL PRICES WILL BE NEEDED FOR 2019 TO SEE THE FIRST SURPLUS SINCE 2014 *2018 FIGURES ARE JAN-OCT PRO-RATED EXCEPT OIL PRICE WHICH PRESUMES LOWER NOV-DEC  VALUES IN LINE WITH LATEST BRENT FUTURES. SOURCE: ALGERIA  CUSTOMS, OPEC, MEES CALCULATIONS.   PRAYING FOR HIGHER PR...