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Geopolitics Roils Oil Market as Opec seeks Balance
...oducers, especially in the US, to lock in prices through hedging and invest in boosting output. Brent settled at $72.06/B on 12 April, the highest level since 1 December 2014’s $72.54/B. Mounting geopolitical concerns appear to be contributing as expectations grow that the US will pull out of the Iran nu...
Volume: 61Issue: 15Published at Fri, 13 Apr 2018 -
LNG: Mideast Producers Lose Share Amid Record Global Trade
...om 84% in 2014 to 51% for 2017. • Australia is on the point of overtaking Qatar for the title of ‘world’s top LNG supplier’. The (delayed) Q2 start up of the 8.9mn t/y Icthyus liquefaction plant off Australia’s northern coast should be enough to make Australia top, though Qatar’s plans to add th...
Volume: 61Issue: 13Published at Fri, 30 Mar 2018 -
Opec’s Falling Production Capacity Strengthens Saudi Control
....49 32.47 32.48 -0.13 32.62 *INCLUDES SHARE OF NEUTRAL ZONE. SOURCE: IEA, MEES. PRODUCTION: LOWER FOR LONGER The decline in oil prices since late 2014 has taken it...
Volume: 61Issue: 10Published at Fri, 09 Mar 2018 -
Global LNG Trade Hits New Records. More To Come?
...ated to enter service. This reflects the lagged impact of a collapse in investment in liquefaction capacity from a peak of $30bn in 2014 to a mere $3bn for 2017. Shell sees a “potential… supply shortage developing in mid-2020s, unless new LNG production project commitments are made soon…Without new in...
Volume: 61Issue: 09Published at Fri, 02 Mar 2018 -
Russia, Saudi Arabia Commit To Enforcing Production Discipline
...cember’s inventory levels stand in terms of forward cover? Using their respective 2018 average OECD demand figures, the IEA data shows 60.1 days coverage and Opec 60.5 days, and December’s stocks represented 62-63 days cover at 2014 demand levels. HOW CAN I RESIST YOU? Abu Dhabi newspaper The Na...
Volume: 61Issue: 07Published at Fri, 16 Feb 2018 -
Opec Steadies Production In January
...cember 2017), especially when pointing to the instability that has plagued output in recent years. Should either be accused of producing too much, they could argue that this would be to offset the risk of near-term drop-offs. January’s combined output of 2.82mn b/d was the highest since September 2014...
Volume: 61Issue: 06Published at Fri, 09 Feb 2018 -
Saudi-Russia Relations Mean Opec+ ‘Deal’ Will Continue. At What Price?
...al. Crude prices at their highest level since late 2014 also point in this direction. But the interests of both core participants, Saudi Arabia and Russia, make a formal wind-down unlikely. Venezuela’s output collapse enabled Opec and the 10 non-Opec countries party to the December 2016 output de...
Volume: 61Issue: 05Published at Fri, 02 Feb 2018 -
Opec’s 2017 Output The Second Highest On Record; What Does 2018 Hold?
...another “full year” of cuts in accordance with November’s agreement (MEES, 1 December 2017). For sure, Opec last year secured its first annual output fall since 2014: production averaged 32.49mn b/d. However, the big caveat is that this was just 130,000 b/d shy of 2016’s record 32.62mn b/d and th...
Volume: 61Issue: 02Published at Fri, 12 Jan 2018 -
The USA: The Global Oil Trade Titan
...e charts, p16). The provisional December crude output figure of 9.77mn b/d is up almost exactly 1mn b/d year-on-year; add in NGLs and output gains during calendar 2017 are 1.4mn b/d, second only to 2014’s record 2mn b/d growth. The vast bulk of these gains are light oil: of course NGLs, largely th...
Volume: 61Issue: 01Published at Fri, 05 Jan 2018 -
Opec In 2018: More Revenue Less Market Share?
...13 2014 2015 2016 2017^ vs 2016 2018^ vs 20...
Volume: 60Issue: 51/52Published at Fri, 22 Dec 2017 -
Saudi Crude Exports At 7-Year Low, Outweighing Products Gains
...ch occurrence since 2014. The 6.65mn b/d exported in Q3 this year was down 290,000 b/d on Q2 and the lowest figure since 2011 (see table, MEES November 24). But has the nadir now passed? Initial indications imply there was a slight increase in crude exports in October, while Saudi Arabia an...
Volume: 60Issue: 47Published at Fri, 24 Nov 2017 -
Saudi ‘Demonstrates Leadership’ by Keeping Crude Exports Low
...most three years ago (MEES, 22 December 2014). Supplies to the closely-watched US market are at 30-year lows and Saudi Arabia has confirmed there will be no easing up in November. In a first statement of its kind the Saudi energy ministry said on 9 October that the kingdom will export 7.15mn b/d in No...
Volume: 60Issue: 42Published at Fri, 20 Oct 2017 -
Does Opec Have A Strategy For ‘Lower For Ever’?
...rket share based strategy chimes with that enunciated by former Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi in late 2014 (MEES, 22 December 2014) but now abandoned. This requires a price low enough to drive competitors out of the market. But the strategy of foregoing short-term revenue for long-term gain was ab...
Volume: 60Issue: 42Published at Fri, 20 Oct 2017 -
Russia Extends Lead Over Saudi In China As Overall Imports Fall
...their lowest level since early 2014. Indeed for five of the last six months, including August (977,000 b/d), rival Opec producer Angola has bested Saudi for second place. But not only are Chinese imports from Saudi Arabia down in August, those from Russia and overall import volumes are also do...
Volume: 60Issue: 39Published at Fri, 29 Sep 2017 -
Saudi Crude Exports At 3-Year Low: Oil Burn Peaks Amid Opec Curbs
...Saudi Arabia’s crude exports are at their lowest level since August 2014 as the kingdom deals with the double-whammy of increased summer demand and reduced output in accordance with last November’s Opec agreement. Saudi Arabia’s oil burn hit 1.39mn b/d in July, the highest figure on re...
Volume: 60Issue: 38Published at Fri, 22 Sep 2017 -
Oil Market Surplus To 2019 Despite Strong Growth Projections
...0,000 b/d to 1.6mn b/d, while Opec raised its figures by 50,000 b/d to 1.42mn b/d. The IEA’s 1.6mn b/d annual gain would be the highest since 2014. While they see a slight slowdown in 2018 (see table), both have strong growth projections in excess of 1.3mn b/d. Opec’s MOMR attributes the 50,000 b/d up...
Volume: 60Issue: 37Published at Fri, 15 Sep 2017 -
China Crude Imports Grow At Record Rate: Can It Last?
...tensity,’ measured in megajoules per dollar (see chart). World Bank data to 2014 show this falling steeply, whilst data from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA), published 24 August, show a further 14.6% fall between 2013 and 2016, Reuters reports. In other words, China’s GDP growth figures of 6....
Volume: 60Issue: 35Published at Fri, 01 Sep 2017 -
GCC Currencies: To Peg Or Not To Peg?
...Opec’s core GCC countries peg their currencies to the US dollar, an anchor that has served them well given that it is the currency in which their key export is denominated. But as the third anniversary of the late 2014 collapse in oil prices approaches, debate is becoming more lively as to wh...
Volume: 60Issue: 34Published at Fri, 25 Aug 2017 -
US Shale Output – Gains Continue Despite Cost-Cutting, Fewer New Rigs
...ministration indicates expected average June-September monthly gains for seven key US shale formations of 124,000 b/d, a level of growth in line with levels seen in the boom year of 2014. The latest projections have September output up 980,000 b/d year-on-year. Given that December last year was only up fr...
Volume: 60Issue: 33Published at Fri, 18 Aug 2017 -
US Drilling: Schlumberger Chief Calls For Caution - Has He Got His Wish?
...the 40% upstream cost reductions achieved since 2013 to ‘stick’. But others are more skeptical. The IEA estimates that global upstream costs were 35% lower in 2016 than 2014 and that around half of these savings (50-55%) are “structural” rather than “cyclical” (45-50%). Of the 45% fall in US shale co...
Volume: 60Issue: 31Published at Fri, 04 Aug 2017