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Libya’s Financial Black Hole
...ude prices, which at an average of $69.2/B for Libya’s light Es Sider crude, are up $19/B (38%) year on year. Hydrocarbons earnings, at LD15.6bn ($11.3bn) for 1H 2018, were 16% above the budget figure. They were also more than double the LD6.8bn earned from hydrocarbons in the first half of 2017: as we...
Volume: 61Issue: 33Published at Fri, 17 Aug 2018 -
Libya Power Expansion Going Nowhere, Blackouts Continue
...gineers were kidnapped last November (MEES, 24 November 2017). Three Turkish engineers (though apparently not their South African colleague) were released in late June, but work has yet to restart. Enka’s website gives the planned completion date as 1 August 2015. Sharply lower gas output resulting fr...
Volume: 61Issue: 33Published at Fri, 17 Aug 2018 -
Turkey Plans East Med Drilling: Politics Over Geology?
...will drill the first well… off the coast of Antalya… within Turkish economic waters,” he said 8 August. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meanwhile, on 3 August announced that Turkey will acquire a second drillship. Turkey only acquired its first drillship late 2017, paying $200mn for the ‘De...
Volume: 61Issue: 32Published at Fri, 10 Aug 2018 -
Iraq: Saudi Power Play As Protests Continue
...sengaged entirely, creating a vacuum on which rival Iran capitalized. Riyadh is now belatedly seeking to engage, particularly since now-Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman began deciding the kingdom’s foreign policy in 2015 (MEES, 27 October 2017). Though few concrete developments have so far ma...
Volume: 61Issue: 31Published at Fri, 03 Aug 2018 -
Iraq Water Crisis Highlights Baghdad’s Impotence
...facing desertification in varying degrees.” That neighboring Turkey—the source of both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers—experienced its driest year in four decades in 2017, has merely exacerbated the already dire situation. POLITICAL CRISIS Baghdad is well aware of the investment ne...
Volume: 61Issue: 30Published at Fri, 27 Jul 2018 -
Libya Election Timetable To Slip Further Amid Factional Divisions
...ppen by December,” says a former ambassador to Tripoli, “but they are the least bad option as long as they are properly prepared. The challenge is for them to be genuine without being divisive.” The aim for elections to be held this year was first set at a Paris meeting on 25 July 2017 hosted by Fr...
Volume: 61Issue: 30Published at Fri, 27 Jul 2018 -
Gulf Choke Points Brought Into Focus As Iran, US & Saudi Ramp Up The Rhetoric
...se for Abu Dhabi’s 6mn t/y of LNG exports, as well as modest but growing LNG imports by Kuwait and Dubai. In total 81mn tons of Gulf LNG exports passed through the channel in 2017. From the perspective of importers, China the global number one oil importer, took 35% of its 2017 crude and co...
Volume: 61Issue: 30Published at Fri, 27 Jul 2018 -
Suez Canal Revenues, Crude Trade At Record Highs: Calm Before The Storm?
...lied on the canal for 12% of its 2017-18 revenue) is the threat to traffic via the Bab al-Mandab straights at the southern end of the Red Sea. Almost all Suez Canal traffic must also pass the Bab al-Mandab. A Saudi Aramco decision on 25 July to halt its shipments via the strait after two tankers we...
Volume: 61Issue: 30Published at Fri, 27 Jul 2018 -
Syria: Key Crossing Open
...rkey have decreased 25% since the closure, with even greater losses from Syria and Lebanon. Kickstarting trade will also prove pivotal to Mr Assad’s immense challenge of rebuilding Syria (MEES, 29 September 2017). The president recently estimated reconstruction costs at $400bn. The seven-year Sy...
Volume: 61Issue: 28Published at Fri, 13 Jul 2018 -
Lebanon’s Recurring Power Nightmare
...stalled Available Fuel Zouk-1 ST (x4) 1984-87 607 365 HFO Zouk extension GT* 2017 194 194 HFO (gas) Jieh-1 ST (x5) 19...
Volume: 61Issue: 27Published at Fri, 06 Jul 2018 -
Karadeniz Eyes 8.3gw Fleet
...wn regional allegations of neocolonialist ambition – began supplying power in Ghana in October 2017. The company also operates in Zambia and Indonesia. Dealing with cash-strapped nations is not always easy. Karadeniz began supplying Basra with 410MW in 2010, but operations came to a halt in 2016 wh...
Volume: 61Issue: 27Published at Fri, 06 Jul 2018 -
Libya Port Attacks Derail Oil Export Prospects
...December 2017), resurgent political violence has torpedoed Libya’s oil sector. Militias commanded by Ibrahim al-Jathran attacked the Ras Lanuf and Es Sider oil terminals in mid-June, causing damage that the National Oil Corporation (NOC) describes as “catastrophic.” The Libyan National Army (LN...
Volume: 61Issue: 26Published at Fri, 29 Jun 2018 -
Shaikan Output To Double After Deal With KRG
...rqala field in Q3, wrapping up Phase-1 development which has seen output rise from 5,000 b/d in early 2017 to more than 21,000 b/d now; 30,000 b/d by early 2019 looks eminently achievable. Elsewhere, Canadian minnow Oryx announced on 20 June that it has completed the first well at the Banan field wi...
Volume: 61Issue: 25Published at Fri, 22 Jun 2018 -
OMV Tests Yemen Restart
...turn. The country’s miniscule current output mostly comes from state firm PetroMasila’s Blocks 10 and 14 in the eastern Marib basin. This is largely shielded from the conflict and thus able to export about 44,000 b/d from Ash-Shihr port (MEES, 15 September 2017). OMV is clearly less skittish than ot...
Volume: 61Issue: 25Published at Fri, 22 Jun 2018 -
Iran Looks East For Support As US Squabbles With Europe
...erhaul China in early 2017. CHINESE, RUSSIAN FIRMS STAND TO BENEFIT China’s state-owned CNPC (30%) last year signed up alongside Total to develop Phase 11 of Iran’s South Pars gas field (MEES, 23 June 2017). With Total set to relinquish its 50.1% stake in the project unless it manages a se...
Volume: 61Issue: 24Published at Fri, 15 Jun 2018 -
Jordan Protests Victorious As Government Nixes Imf-Backed Tax Bill
...reign aid (MEES, 13 April)—the conflict in Syria has severely stunted Jordan’s growth. Jordan averaged 6.6%/year GDP growth from 2005 to 2011 versus 2.6% since, with 2016 and 2017 the lowest yet. The World Bank expects Jordan to average 2.4% growth in 2018 —only up marginally from 2017 (see chart). Fr...
Volume: 61Issue: 23Published at Fri, 08 Jun 2018 -
Mena Remittances Up 10% In 2017
...Remittances are a crucial lifeline to the region’s cash-strapped oil importing economies. Thanks largely to Cairo’s floatation of the Egyptian Pound in late 2016, Mena remittance inflows topped $56bn in 2017 after having fallen year-on-year since 2014. Egyptian inflows hit $20bn ac...
Volume: 61Issue: 22Published at Fri, 01 Jun 2018 -
Qatar Diversifies Trade Links Post-Embargo
...With the first anniversary of the Qatar embargo looming on 5 June, Doha’s finances look to have largely coped with the upheaval. New import and export routes were quickly established, enabling the emirate to capitalize on rising oil prices and cut its budget deficit by a third in 2017. La...
Volume: 61Issue: 21Published at Fri, 25 May 2018 -
Libya: What Hope For The UN’s Ambitious ‘Action Plan’?
...The UN Action Plan to resolve Libya’s political morass has made some progress. But renewed security concerns mean the country’s future is as uncertain as ever. Since the incoming UN Special Representative to Libya Ghassan Salamé set out an ‘Action Plan’ in September 2017, he has come up ag...
Volume: 61Issue: 20Published at Fri, 18 May 2018 -
US Violation Of Iran Nuclear Agreement Sends Buyers Scrambling
...r Iran that includes the strategic objective of denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon.” But having abrogated an agreement that had at least paused this, the US appears to be left with an objective but no clear strategy. 1. EU IMPORTS OF IRANIAN CRUDE DOUBLE IN 2017, NUMBER OF BUYERS RISES FR...
Volume: 61Issue: 19Published at Fri, 11 May 2018