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Fitch ‘Junks’ Oman
...one rung above junk (MEES, 23 March), whilst S&P on 9 November affirmed Oman at BB with a stable outlook. Oman has seen several downgrades since oil prices dived in the second half of 2014. Despite this year’s oil price recovery, Oman has been unable to improve its deficit-to-GDP ratio. This ha...
Volume: 61Issue: 51-52Published at Fri, 21 Dec 2018 -
Saudi Reveals Optimistic 2019 Budget But Still Expects To Load Up On Debt
...is is a year-on-year increase of $11.2bn but is still well down on the August 2014 peak of $746bn. Clearly there is considerable scope for the kingdom to again turn to its reserves to finance its deficits, but with Riyadh not planning on balancing the budget before 2023, it can’t lean too heavily on th...
Volume: 61Issue: 51-52Published at Fri, 21 Dec 2018 -
Qatar: New 2.5GW Plant Powers Economic Growth
...erage electricity demand growth of around 10% a year during 2014-16, according to Kahramaa data. With thousands of visitors set to descend on Qatar for the 2022 World Cup, this could mean new peak demand records. With that in mind, Qatar still has major power projects due online in the near te...
Volume: 61Issue: 50Published at Fri, 14 Dec 2018 -
Algeria Set For $5bn 2018 Trade Deficit: As Good As It Gets?
...RTHER RISE IN OIL PRICES WILL BE NEEDED FOR 2019 TO SEE THE FIRST SURPLUS SINCE 2014 *2018 FIGURES ARE JAN-OCT PRO-RATED EXCEPT OIL PRICE WHICH PRESUMES LOWER NOV-DEC VALUES IN LINE WITH LATEST BRENT FUTURES. SOURCE: ALGERIA CUSTOMS, OPEC, MEES CALCULATIONS. PRAYING FOR HIGHER PR...
Volume: 61Issue: 49Published at Fri, 07 Dec 2018 -
Saudi Arabia Bags $118bn Trade Surplus In 9M 2018
...16’s annual record (MEES, 23 November). Quarterly oil (and total) revenues were the highest since oil prices collapsed in late 2014/early 2015, but this looks to prove the high-water mark for the immediate future. Oil prices collapsed through October and November, to stand at the lowest levels this ye...
Volume: 61Issue: 48Published at Fri, 30 Nov 2018 -
Oman Economy Set For Strong 2018 Finish
...cent years: the figure was $5.15bn in 2014. Higher current expenditure is partly down to larger interest payments on loans as well as gas production expenditure which has risen from $380mn to $850mn year-on-year. But the bigger movements are on the revenue side of the ledger. Oil exports are only up...
Volume: 61Issue: 47Published at Fri, 23 Nov 2018 -
Tunisia Struggles To Cash In On Democracy
...nis had an opportunity following the 2014 oil price slump to reduce its burden on the budget, but that train has come and gone and higher prices are now causing a massive headache for the fractured government. Although Tunis has incrementally raised fuel prices, thereby reducing subsidies, the su...
Volume: 61Issue: 46Published at Fri, 16 Nov 2018 -
Saudi 9M Stats Show Kingdom Almost In The Black: Too Good To Be True?
...e nine-month figure suggests that Saudi Arabia is on track to post a full year deficit of just $17.5bn, not only by far the lowest since oil prices headed south in late 2014, but actually level with 2014 as a whole – when oil prices averaged $97/B, some 37% above the $71.1/B average for January-Se...
Volume: 61Issue: 45Published at Fri, 09 Nov 2018 -
Egypt Economy Marches Upwards, But Higher Oil Prices Hit Subsidy Reforms
...th May’s $503.1mn the highest since August 2014 (MEES, 26 October). Its share of state revenue has also risen from 11% in 2016-17 to 12% in 2017-18. After a sluggish start, Egypt is now reaping the rewards of its $8.5bn August 2015 canal expansion. Revenues fell in 2015 and 2016 but rose in 2017 an...
Volume: 61Issue: 44Published at Fri, 02 Nov 2018 -
Iran Reshuffles Cabinet Ahead Of US Sanctions
...change was in April 2014 at the height of US and EU sanctions, but this failed with just one very small lot of crude oil sold. Exporting oil by the private sector also risks encouraging corruption in countries under sanctions, as witnessed in Iran with the notorious case of Babak Zanjani, the Iranian bu...
Volume: 61Issue: 44Published at Fri, 02 Nov 2018 -
Will Saudi Geopolitical Crisis Derail PIF Plans, 2030 Vision?
...sinesses do ultimately retrench from doing business with Saudi Arabia, who could fill the void? Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world’s two largest oil exporters, have been forming closer ties since the collapse of the oil price in 2014; they now coordinate production under the ‘Opec+’ format. The Russian Di...
Volume: 61Issue: 43Published at Fri, 26 Oct 2018 -
Can A New Government Salvage Iraq’s Economy?
...idar al-Abadi did in 2014 when Islamic State (IS) was running rampant (MEES, 26 September 2014). The next PM will, however, have to deal with the reconstruction following the devastating conflict with the group, and that is going to cost a lot of money. As much as $88bn. The next government wi...
Volume: 61Issue: 41Published at Fri, 12 Oct 2018 -
Saudi Steps Up Spending In Bid To Boost Economy
...e 2014 oil price collapse, the Saudi government has more recently turned to debt markets. This enabled foreign reserves to rise to an 18-month high of $510bn at end-August, though this is still well down on its August 2014 peak of $746bn (see chart MEES, 5 October). Having raised $21.5bn in 20...
Volume: 61Issue: 40Published at Fri, 05 Oct 2018 -
Vision 2030: Is The Public Investment Fund’s Strategy Due An Overhaul?
...cal companies and real estate, such investment is challenging. Turning further to debt for financing is an option, but Saudi government debt is already on a sizeable upwards trend, with Moody’s estimating an increase from $12bn in 2014 to $140bn this year (see chart). IMF figures show debt soaring fr...
Volume: 61Issue: 38Published at Fri, 21 Sep 2018 -
Iran Offers Big Discounts To Retain Customers
...e last year before sanctions were tightened in 2012, these five bought 1.44mn b/d between them, before bottoming out at 971,000 b/d in 2014. They continued importing at that level thanks to waivers handed out by the US Obama administration, under which they escaped sanctions so long as they re...
Volume: 61Issue: 38Published at Fri, 21 Sep 2018 -
Japan Set To Follow South Korea and France In Halting Iran Oil Imports
...lumes from 2011 levels, with further cuts in 2014. But India and China, having made more modest cuts in 2012 and 2013, all-but reversed these in 2014 when it became clear that then US President Obama was keener to avoid conflict than enforce sanctions (see chart and MEES, 6 February 2015). This ti...
Volume: 61Issue: 36Published at Fri, 07 Sep 2018 -
Algeria Halves Trade Deficit, Thanks To Higher Oil Prices
...tal exports, though this would be the lowest share since the turn of the millennium. Based on year to date figures and the current oil futures price, MEES estimates that for 2018 as a whole Algeria will earn $42.2bn in export revenues, up 17% on 2017’s $35.2bn and the highest figure since 2014 wh...
Volume: 61Issue: 35Published at Fri, 31 Aug 2018 -
Record Products Sales And VAT Bolster Saudi Economy
...tting it on track for a full year figure of $22.2bn. This would be barely one third of last year’s deficit, the lowest since 2014’s $17.5bn and $30bn less than budgeted for. And this is despite spending being on track to come in just $4bn below the budgeted figure of $260.8bn, the highest since 2015 (se...
Volume: 61Issue: 34Published at Fri, 24 Aug 2018 -
Oman: Oil Prices Bolster Economy, For Now
...ternational observers are nonetheless troubled by the underlying economics—a fact reflected in rating agencies’ decision to downgrade Oman’s economic outlook several times following the 2014 oil price crash (MEES, 24 November 2017). S&P rates Oman as ‘junk’ status. Unlike fellow GCC members, Oman’s more mo...
Volume: 61Issue: 33Published at Fri, 17 Aug 2018 -
Qatar Export Revenues Hit Three-Year High Despite Continued Embargo
...gh of more than $80bn for 2018 as a whole (see chart 1). Still well down on the years to 2014 where Qatar racked up $130bn+ revenue. Provisional trade data show that Qatar’s export revenue rose to $20.8bn in 2Q 2018, the highest since the first quarter in 2015 (see chart 2). But these gains also sh...
Volume: 61Issue: 31Published at Fri, 03 Aug 2018